Form-minors and force majeure. Ensuring technological resilience and preserving the investment value of nuclear power plant construction projects under global instability.
ABSTRACT
Introduction: Nuclear energy in the zone of uncertainty
Limitations of the study
Important note: This work focuses exclusively on the design and construction stages of NPPs (under-construction facilities). Issues of safety, operation, and resilience of operating power units in conditions of conflicts and sanctions require a separate, specific analysis and will be discussed in our next study.
The current stage in the development of global nuclear energy is characterized by an unprecedented combination of ambitious plans to build hundreds of new reactor units and, at the same time, an extremely high probability of local and global conflicts. We are at a point where technological development collides with the realities of trade wars, strict sanctions, and geopolitical turbulence.
Historically, NPP projects were designed for decades of stable cooperation; however the current situation requires a radical revision of the approaches to managing the project life cycle, especially during the construction phase. In the framework of our paper “Form-minors and Force Majures” we highlight two key risk poles:
• 'Form-minors' are technical, logistical and legal barriers arising in peacetime, such as bans on the supply of certain equipment units, requiring operational adaptation of the project and the search for innovative engineering solutions.
• 'Force Majures' — critical circumstances (pandemics, military actions, political ruptures), capable of leading to a sudden and uncontrollable closure of construction sites.
As experience shows, underestimating these risks leads to catastrophic consequences: unprotected facilities under environmental influence may transition to an emergency or irreparable state. Without a well-thought-out set of compensating measures, restarting construction after the crisis ends may prove physically and economically impossible.
The withdrawal of a construction site from the active phase of construction requires significant intellectual and material costs, balanced planning, a specialized regulatory framework, interaction with internationally recognized organizations and national regulatory authorities, discussions with unions during workforce releases, careful organization, coordination and control of works, creation of a specialized infrastructure, development of innovative engineering solutions, and high personnel qualifications.
The aim of this work is to systematize the accumulated experience (including the Angra-3 and Belene NPP cases) and to propose a methodology for preserving the investment value of unfinished construction projects. We aim to create an algorithm that will turn a forced shutdown from a 'financial catastrophe' into a 'manageable pause' ensuring the preservation of structures, equipment and, not least, the reputation of the Rosatom State Corporation on the world market.
The choice of Rosatom State Corporation projects as the baseline model for the study is driven by the corporation's leading position in the world market: possessing the largest portfolio of foreign orders at different stages of implementation, Rosatom accumulates the broadest range of challenges—from sanctions restrictions in international cooperation to the need to adapt projects to various national regulatory requirements.
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