Kazakhstan’s geopolitical balancing act: navigating EU and Russian powerhouses

We believe that our partners in the EU understand very well the importance of our relations with Russia, because geography is something that you cannot change – this was a key message EUalive heard from officials during the Astana Think Tank Forum 2025 held on 15-16 October.

The importance to have good political and economic relations both with Russia and EU was emphasized both onstage and backstage, and the interest of the EU in developing more partnerships in Central Asia was greatly appreciated.

“Since the very beginning of our existence as an independent state, one of the priorities of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy was to establish relations with the European countries. But geography is something that you cannot change. From this point of view we believe that our partners in the EU understand very well the importance of our relations with Russia”, a senior official told EUalive. The source’s identity is withheld to allow for more candid commentary on the sensitive issues discussed.

A very long border

“We have a very long and unique common border with the Russian Federation of 7,500 km and very active economic ties across the border. So this is a neighbor which is forever with us. And understanding the significance of maintaining relations with Russia for the well-being of Kazakhstan is the recognition of the reality, that we can maintain the balance and keep at par relations with both Brussels and Moscow,” EUalive was told.

Indeed, Kazakhstan, a close historical ally of Russia through, has adopted a cautious, officially neutral stance on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022, balancing its deep economic and security ties to Moscow with growing domestic anti-war sentiment and international pressures.

“The basic thing for us are the provisions of the UN Charter in all their totality, meaning recognition of the principle of the respect of territorial integrity, respect of basic rights. That means that we are not choosing sides. We agree on one thing. All the disputes, conflicts and differences should be resolved through peaceful means based on the UN Charter. That is the way to proceed on the conflicts in Ukraine of Gaza,” our source said.

Asked to comment the indisputable fact that Russia is the aggressor, as it violated the principles of the territorial integrity and occupied parts of Ukraine, the official preferred to speak about the solution to the conflict.

“What happened, we cannot redo it. What is important is to look into the future and find solutions which will be acceptable for all sides in the conflict,” the sources said.

This echoes the speech of the Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the General Debate of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly on 24 September.

“Kazakhstan remains concerned by the Ukrainian Crisis, which continues to seriously harm civilians, damage global trust, and undermine international security. Nonetheless, bilateral and international diplomatic efforts on this conflict should continue along with political flexibility to meet the long-term interests of both states. Territorial disputes are never easy to resolve and require mutual restraint and responsibility for the sake of future generations,“ Tokayev said.

‘Not a competitor’

Kazakhstan will not compete with Russia in the diversification of energy sources for the EU, an expert from Astana told EUalive.

“Trade and economic strategy is not a question of substituting somebody. It’s a question of mutually beneficial cooperation. If this is commercially viable and helpful for both sites, such a deal should be supported. If it’s viable, we don’t see a reason not to proceed with rare metals or any other critical materials which are available. So we are not in competition with anyone or squeezing away from the market. We offer what we have. And if it is something acceptable for the EU, Russia, China, US, countries from the Middle Eastern or South Asia, we are ready for this kind of cooperation,” the experts said.

Azerbaijan cannot compete with Russia and cannot substitute Moscow as a source of gas or petroleum for the EU, Gulshan Pashayeva, MP and Board Member of the Center of Analysis of International Relations in Baku, told EUalive.

“Regarding the EU, by 2027 we must increase our gas supplies to 20 bcm per year. Now we are supplying a little bit more than 12 bcm. But it’s only about increasing up to 20 bcm, no more. Of course, things can change, but only if the Central Asian countries join us,” she said.

Kazakhstan, endowed with abundant natural resources including critical raw materials, is keen to develop their potential through mutually beneficial partnerships, including with the European Union. In pursuing partnerships to develop its critical raw materials, Kazakhstan seeks collaborations that deliver added value through innovation and sustainable development, beyond mere resource extraction.

“There is a lot of interest in the oil and gas resources in Kazakhstan. The obstacle is the distance and the not so well developed system for delivery. But one of the ways is exploring new routes for delivery. Also we have uranium, rare-earth metals, green sources like hydrogen,“ our interlocutor added.

Kazakhstan’s motivations to develop green hydrogen in partnership with major companies from countries such as Germany or Italy are multifaceted. Economically, green hydrogen diversification reduces reliance on hydrocarbons, while creating jobs in renewables – potentially thousands in construction and operations.

Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned the graphite resources of Kazakhstan in her speech during the ‘One Year After the Draghi Report’ Conference on 16 September. “We have agreed with Kazakhstan, graphite for 100,000 EV batteries every year,“ Von der Leyen said.

Kazakhstan-EU anniversary

Interlocutors spoke highly of the relations with the EU and its member states in light of the approaching 10th anniversary from the signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) between the EU and Kazakhstan. Among the countries in Central Asia, Kazakhstan was the first country to sign such type of agreement.

Fully in force since 1 March 2020, EPCA strengthens bilateral ties by fostering deeper political dialogue, economic cooperation, and sustainable development, serving as a cornerstone for collaboration on a wide range of issues.

The trade turnover between the EU and the Central Asian countries amounts to around €55 billion, of which over €49 billion accounts for Kazakhstan. Astana remains the EU’s main economic partner in the region.

Today, more than 3,000 companies with European participation operate in Kazakhstan, with total investments reaching $200 billion.

Interlocutors said that Kazakhstan continues to  strengthen its position as a responsible and reliable partner of the European Union, capable of playing a key role in the sustainable development of the region and ensuring mutually beneficial, pragmatic cooperation.

A perspective from China

The sanctions are not the way to deal with Russia. Such is the opinion of Yang Cheng, Professor, Executive Dean of the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies in the Shanghai International Studies University, China.

“I think the sanctions are not so effective. Russia is a big country, it has many natural resources and a good supply chain. It always takes time economic sanctions to be more effective.” he told EUalive.

As an example, Yan Cheng mentioned that Iran has not collapsed despite the US has imposed sanctions against the Islamic Republic a long time ago. And the case of Russia will be more difficult, he thinks.

“The sanctions against Russia have more political symbolism and impact. Russian companies have walked their way to the Western companies. For example, in Ukraine were found some Russian weapons, especially rockets and missiles. And many of their parts were imported from the Western countries. It’s an evidence that the sanctions are not able to change the Russia’s position, one one hand, and, on another, to put burden on the Russian economy,” Yang said

EUalive asked if China was helping Russia militarily.

“What I can say is that we very seriously control our exports. We have never exported weapons or materials which would help Russia modernize its weapons. We never did this”, the Chinese professor answered.

The sanctions imposed by the EU on Chinese companies and banks for helping Russia circumvent the sanctions don’t prove that Beijing has helped Moscow. This claim is a European narrative, Yang Cheng added.

Nuclear non-proliferation in the spotlight

The ATTF participants also discussed the issues of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recurrent Middle East tensions, several countries are increasingly tempted to develop nuclear arsenals as a means of strategic deterrence.

Speakers acknowledged that traditional arms control and non-proliferation mechanisms designed for a bipolar world are struggling to cope with the current diversity of nuclear players and competing strategic powers.

Vladimir Orlov, Founding Director of PIR Center and Professor at Moscow State Institute for Foreign Relations (MGIMO) emphasized that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) remains a unique and universally accepted treaty.

“Its three pillars – disarmament, peaceful nuclear energy development, and non-proliferation – remain relevant to all countries,”, Orlov said.

Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association (USA), focused on strengthening nuclear safeguards and advancing disarmament diplomacy in the new era of strategic rivalry.

“In today’s environment, all responsible states must uphold the norms of the NPT that prevent accumulation, proliferation, testing, and the threat of use of nuclear weapons”, he told the forum.

The participants explored the prospects for innovative approaches to reducing nuclear risks and analyzed how non-nuclear states can help bridge divisions between nuclear-armed nations.

Kazakhstan reaffirmed its support for forming a unified Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security community and its commitment to contributing to a new international order, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Yerzhan Ashikbayev said, adding for the resumption of dialogue between nuclear powers and a scaling up of multilateral efforts to reduce the threat of weapons of mass destruction.

Kazakhstan actively champions nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament through its “Semipalatinsk diplomacy,” a policy rooted in the 1991 closure of the Soviet-era Semipalatinsk nuclear test site and the nation’s voluntary relinquishment of its inherited nuclear arsenal post-independence, reflecting its commitment to global test bans and nuclear security. Between 1949 and 1989, the USSR conducted approximately 460 nuclear tests at Semipalatinsk, leaving lasting environmental and human sequels. These scars fuel Kazakhstan’s advocacy for a nuclear-free world.

Caption: Astana’s skyline, a vibrant tapestry of modern architecture, reflects the dynamic ambition of Kazakhstan’s new capital. [Momchil Indjov]