WNA: national goals exceed the planned 'tripling' of global capacities, as well as details about the program in Serbia

According to the first 'World Nuclear Outlook' report of the World Nuclear Association, global capacity could reach 1,446 gigawatts by 2050. However, achieving this target requires a rate of construction that is twice as high as the historical peak of the 1980s

The World Nuclear Association (World Nuclear Association – WNA) report was published in Davos. We highlight the report as highly influential because it almost changes the perception of the future of nuclear energy. The analysis of national targets presented by WNA shows that governments around the world have set targets that not only meet the COP28 declaration to triple nuclear capacities (a target of 1,200 gigawatts), but significantly exceed it, aiming for an incredible 1,446 gigawatts by the middle of the century.

As for the current state, there are about 440 reactors operating worldwide with a total capacity of 397 gigawatts, while 70 reactors are under construction. And despite that, to reach the planned targets, the world would have to undertake unprecedented industrial mobilization.

The report maps growth in three key phases:

• By 2030: growth will rely on reactors that are already in the construction phase.
• 2030–2035: growth will rely on already planned projects.
• After 2035: proposed and potential government programs that are still awaiting concrete steps will dominate.

The biggest challenge lies in the speed of grid connection. While in the period up to 2030 it is necessary to add about 14.4 gigawatts per year, that rate must dramatically rise to 65.3 gigawatts per year in the period from 2046 to 2050. And that is roughly twice the highest rate of construction and grid connection ever recorded: during the eighties of the last century.

The WNA also warns that “political promises” must become realistic and achievable plans. Key WNA recommendations include: extending the operating life for operational reactors (supporting operation of existing reactors for 60 to 80 years wherever technically feasible); market reform (namely, primarily a set of ideas on fair treatment of nuclear energy within low-carbon sources); building “human capital” and supply chains (that is, urgent development of educational infrastructure for producing skilled labor as well as expanding capacity for producing components and fuel).

The WNA Davos report confirms what we have been writing for some time: nuclear energy has become almost an imperative for survival. However, the figure of 1,446 gigawatts reveals a deep tension between political will and industrial reality.

In order to reach the construction rate that is twice as high as that of the 1980s, it will be necessary to coordinate supply chains and the educational system. The fact that we need a construction tempo higher than in the golden age of the nuclear era (the 1980s) means that we are facing a huge deficit of engineers and craftsmen. And on top of that, we add that even 542 gigawatts of the listed additional capacity in government targets in the report still has no identified projects.

Therefore, we must note that the World Nuclear Association report is largely based on estimates and expectations that could be characterized as “overly optimistic.” Government plans are one thing, and reality is something quite different, so we highlight Uganda, for which it is claimed that the government plans to install as much as 25 thousand megawatts by 2050 (we have checked several times to be sure).

And we also drew attention to the part of the report devoted to Serbia. It states the lifting of the moratorium at the end of the year before last and notes that Serbia's plan is to have the first 250 megawatts of nuclear capacity on the grid by 2042, which would very likely mean that the construction of one small modular reactor is planned. After this first installation, a relatively rapid growth in capacity is planned, with installed capacity rising to 1,200 megawatts by 2049. It is also stated that Serbia in March 2024 asked for “assistance from countries that have nou-hau in the area of financing and construction of small modular reactors”.