World Nuclear Association: Tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050 is achievable.

The goal of tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050 can be achieved, provided that governments take urgent and sustainable measures to meet national targets for the deployment of nuclear energy, according to the report of the World Nuclear Association ( World Nuclear Association – WNA) presented at the United Nations Conference on Climate Change held in Belem, Brazil

The goal of tripling capacity has been supported by 31 countries at COP28 and COP29 conferences. There are currently around 440 nuclear reactors in operation with a total capacity of nearly 397 gigawatts, while 70 reactors are under construction, which will add another 77 gigawatts to the global grid.

The WNA analysis encompassed the goals and plans of national governments for nuclear capacity by 2050. The total of national targets stands at 1,363 gigawatts. When adding to that the capacities that are already operational, under construction, planned, or proposed but not covered by government targets, the total potential capacity for 2050 reaches 1,428 gigawatts.

This figure surpasses the target of 1,200 gigawatts set by the Declaration on Tripling Nuclear Energy if it is assumed that the operation of existing reactors will be extended for a period of up to 80 years.

But the WNA warns that the projected global capacity for 2050 “depends significantly on the actions of a small number of countries.” The national targets of China and the United States account for more than half of the total capacity. When projections for France, India and Russia are added, these five countries would reach almost 1,000 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050.

The report also notes that meeting these targets presents a significant challenge. There is a need to accelerate the rate of reactor construction, whereby new grid connections by 2050 would have to be four times greater than those required by 2030, and twice the historical maximum achieved in the mid-1980s.

The Director General of the WNA, Sama Bilbao y León, stated that the analysis indicates that tripling nuclear capacity by 2050 is achievable with timely action by industry leaders, forward-looking governments, and civil society.

Additionally, the WNA notes that to achieve the goals, regulatory reform and simplification of processes are necessary; access to affordable financing for the entire nuclear value chain; accelerated development and deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced reactor technologies; significant investments and improvements in the nuclear fuel cycle, from mining to fuel production.

The WNA concluded that, although the IEA’s scenarios predict a revival of nuclear energy, their projections lag behind the ambitions of the Declaration and the findings of the WNA. The full report will be published later this year.